Saturday, July 13, 2024
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Sydney Electorate – redistribution changes

The Balmain Peninsula and the suburb of Annandale were taken out of Sydney and put into the seat of Leichhardt. Potts Point and Darlinghurst were moved into Sydney from the seat of Wentworth, and some parts of Newtown and Camperdown were moved into Sydney from the seat of Grayndler.

This redistribution will reduce Labor’s first preference vote from about 49.5 per cent, to about 46.6 per cent, while increasing the Liberals’ first preference vote from about 32.0 per cent to about 32.9 per cent and increasing the Greens’ first preference vote from about 18.5 per cent to 20.5 per cent. For the Liberals to win, they would need almost all of the Greens’ preferences. For the Greens to win, they would need to increase their primary vote above the Liberals’ primary vote, and to receive almost all of the Liberals’ preferences as well.

There may be some change in the margin, but there is little doubt that Labor will retain the seat comfortably.

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